Barclays raises 2026 oil price forecast due to Strait of Hormuz geopolitical instability
Original framing: “Barclays raises 2026 Brent forecast to $85 a barrel on Strait of Hormuz disruption - Reuters” — Reuters (via Google News)
The Strait of Hormuz has historically been a site of strategic control and conflict, with colonial powers and modern states vying for influence. Similar patterns of energy chokepoints being used as leverage occurred during the 1973 oil crisis and the 1990 Gulf War.
The Barclays forecast reflects a systemic pattern where geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz is leveraged to maintain the dominance of fossil fuel markets.
This framing serves powerful financial and energy interests by reinforcing the perception of oil as a necessary economic stabilizer, while marginalizing alternative energy pathways and local voices. Historical parallels show that energy crises are often manipulated to serve geopolitical agendas, and Indigenous and non-Western perspectives offer critical insights into sustainable resource management. To break this cycle, a transition to decentralized renewables, inclusive energy governance, and cross-cultural cooperation is essential. This requires not only technological innovation but also a reimagining of global energy systems that prioritize equity and long-term stability over short-term profit.