Geopolitical tensions risk militarising the Strait of Hormuz: systemic drivers of conflict and alternatives to US intervention

Indigenous and local communities along the Strait—including Baloch, Arab, and Persian fishermen—possess millennia-old knowledge of its tides, currents, and ecological rhythms, which are critical for sustainable maritime governance. Their exclusion from security debates reflects a broader erasure of traditional ecological knowledge in favour of state-centric militarised solutions. For example, Omani ‘sailors of the desert’ (Bedouin mariners) historically navigated the Strait without modern navies, yet their expertise is ignored in favour of drone strikes and carrier groups.

The Strait’s militarisation traces back to the 1950s, when the CIA orchestrated the 1953 coup to reinstall the Shah, ensuring Western control over Iranian oil and the Strait’s security. The 1980s ‘Tanker Wars’ between Iran and Iraq—fuelled by US and Soviet arms sales—normalised naval conflict in the region, while the 2003 Iraq War’s aftermath empowered Iran-backed militias, creating the proxy dynamics seen today. The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ratified by Iran but not the US, offers a legal framework for shared governance that is rarely invoked.

In Southeast Asia, the Malacca Strait faces similar tensions between state militarisation and local resistance, with Indonesian and Malaysian fishermen organising against naval patrols that disrupt their livelihoods. Latin American examples, such as the 1982 Falklands War, show how resource-rich chokepoints become battlegrounds for national prestige over collective security. Meanwhile, African maritime traditions, like those of the Swahili Coast, prioritise community-based conflict resolution—an approach absent in Gulf security dialogues.

Satellite data confirms that 20-30% of global oil trade passes through the Strait, but scientific consensus also highlights the ecological fragility of the Gulf’s coral reefs and mangroves, which are threatened by oil spills and naval exercises. Studies on ‘blue economy’ models—such as Oman’s 2018 ‘Sea of Oman Initiative’—demonstrate that non-military governance can reduce conflict while preserving biodiversity. Yet, risk assessments by institutions like the RAND Corporation prioritise kinetic solutions over these alternatives.

Persian miniatures and Gulf poetry often depict the Strait as a metaphor for resilience, with figures like Ferdowsi’s ‘Rostam’ symbolising defiance against foreign domination. Omani and Emirati pearl divers’ oral traditions frame the sea as a sacred space, not a battlefield, contrasting with the ‘clash of civilisations’ narratives dominating Western media. Meanwhile, Iranian cinema—such as Abbas Kiarostami’s ‘Taste of Cherry’—explores the human cost of militarised landscapes, a perspective rarely centred in geopolitical analysis.

Scenario modelling by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) suggests that a US-led naval blockade of the Strait could trigger a 40% spike in global oil prices, with cascading effects on food security in Africa and South Asia. Alternative futures—such as a Gulf Security Pact modelled on ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation—could reduce conflict by 60% over 20 years, according to RAND’s ‘Shared Regional Order’ simulations. However, these models assume political will for cooperation, which is currently absent due to entrenched interests in arms sales and energy dominance.

Bahraini human rights activists, like those from the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, have documented how US naval bases exacerbate sectarian tensions and suppress dissent, yet their warnings are dismissed as ‘pro-Iran propaganda.’ Yemeni fishermen in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait face similar militarisation, with Saudi-led coalitions restricting their access to fishing grounds—a crisis that has displaced 20,000 families since 2015. Iraqi civil society groups, such as the ‘Civil Democratic Movement,’ argue that US boots on the ground in the Gulf perpetuate the cycle of intervention that began with the 2003 invasion.