Mainstream coverage frames this as a bilateral dispute, but the conflict is embedded in decades of U.S.-Gulf military alliances, sanctions regimes, and Iran’s asymmetric deterrence strategy. The arrests likely reflect Gulf states’ alignment with U.S. regional dominance, while Iran’s strikes target perceived U.S. proxies. Neither narrative addresses how decades of sanctions, regime-change operations, and arms sales have militarised the Gulf, nor the role of non-state actors in sustaining cycles of violence.
The narrative is produced by Gulf-aligned media and Western outlets, serving the interests of U.S.-Gulf security architectures that rely on framing Iran as a destabilising force. The framing obscures the role of U.S. military bases in the Gulf, the 2015 JCPOA collapse, and Gulf states’ complicity in enabling U.S. strikes. It also privileges state-centric security logics over the lived experiences of civilians caught in crossfire.
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Gulf indigenous perspectives, rooted in Bedouin traditions of hospitality and tribal solidarity, often reject state militarisation as a violation of communal values. Iranian narratives, while state-centric, invoke Shia concepts of resistance (muqawama) that resonate with marginalised Shia communities across the region. Neither perspective is centred in mainstream coverage, which frames the conflict through state security logics rather than lived communal ethics.
The current tensions are a continuation of the 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran, the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, and the 1991 Gulf War, where U.S. bases were established in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The 2015 JCPOA’s collapse under Trump, followed by U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Syria, created a power vacuum exploited by both Iran-backed militias and Gulf states. The 2017 Saudi-led blockade of Qatar further entrenched divisions, with the UAE and Bahrain aligning with U.S. and Israeli interests.
In Shia Islam, resistance against oppression (muqawama) is a theological imperative, shaping Iran’s framing of strikes as defensive. Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Bahrain, frame arrests through Wahhabi-inspired counterterrorism narratives, ignoring how their alliances with the U.S. invite conflict. Meanwhile, Kurdish and Baloch minorities in Iran and the Gulf face repression from both state and non-state actors, a dimension absent from mainstream coverage.
Studies show that U.S. military presence in the Gulf correlates with increased regional instability and arms races, as documented by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The 2020 U.S. assassination of Qasem Soleimani escalated tensions, with retaliatory strikes and subsequent de-escalation efforts revealing the fragility of deterrence models. Meanwhile, Iran’s drone and missile programs are a response to sanctions and U.S. military dominance, not an isolated phenomenon.
Artistic expressions in Iran, such as poetry and cinema, often frame resistance as a spiritual struggle against imperialism, as seen in the works of Forugh Farrokhzad and Abbas Kiarostami. Gulf states suppress artistic dissent, framing it as destabilising, while promoting nationalist art that glorifies state security narratives. Meanwhile, Shia mourning rituals (e.g., Ashura) are co-opted by the state to legitimise resistance narratives, obscuring grassroots dissent.
Scenario modelling suggests that continued U.S.-Gulf military cooperation will escalate proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, with Iran expanding its asymmetric capabilities. A potential collapse of the UAE’s de-escalation efforts with Iran could trigger a regional arms race, particularly with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Meanwhile, climate-induced water scarcity and economic instability may exacerbate social unrest, further radicalising populations on all sides.
Marginalised voices include Shia communities in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, who face state repression for opposing Gulf regimes’ alignment with the U.S. Kurdish and Baloch minorities in Iran and the Gulf are caught between state violence and militia control. Meanwhile, Yemeni civilians, subjected to U.S.-backed Saudi airstrikes, are rarely centred in narratives about Iran’s strikes on 'U.S. interests.'
The role of U.S. military bases in the UAE and Bahrain as launchpads for strikes on Yemen and Iraq; historical precedents like the 1953 coup in Iran and the 1991 Gulf War; the impact of sanctions on Iran’s civilian economy; marginalised voices of Gulf activists opposing militarisation; and indigenous Gulf perspectives on sovereignty and resistance.
An ACST audit of what the original framing omits. Eligible for cross-reference under the ACST vocabulary.
Establish a Gulf-wide security framework independent of U.S. and Iranian influence, modelled after the ASEAN Regional Forum. This would require phased withdrawal of U.S. military bases, mutual recognition of sovereignty, and joint economic development initiatives to reduce reliance on external powers. Historical precedents like the 1971 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could be revived with anti-militarisation clauses.
Lift unilateral sanctions on Iran in exchange for verifiable commitments to de-escalate proxy conflicts, including Yemen and Syria. This aligns with the 2015 JCPOA’s principles but requires multilateral enforcement to prevent U.S. backsliding. Economic reconciliation could include joint infrastructure projects (e.g., water desalination, renewable energy) to reduce dependence on arms sales.
Fund and amplify Track II diplomacy involving civil society, tribal leaders, and religious scholars from all sides. Examples include the 2019 Oman-mediated backchannel talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Support for independent media and artistic expression could counter state propaganda and foster cross-cultural understanding.
Address root causes of instability by investing in regional climate adaptation, particularly water desalination and renewable energy. The UAE’s 2023 COP28 presidency could pivot from greenwashing to genuine cooperation, with Iran and Gulf states jointly managing shared aquifers and solar energy grids. This aligns with indigenous knowledge on sustainable water management.
The Iran-UAE tensions are a microcosm of a 70-year-old conflict rooted in U.S. imperialism, Gulf state authoritarianism, and Iran’s asymmetric resistance strategy. The arrests in the UAE reflect the Gulf’s alignment with U.S. military dominance, while Iran’s strikes target perceived U.S. proxies—a dynamic perpetuated by decades of sanctions, regime-change operations, and arms sales. Mainstream coverage obscures the role of U.S. bases in the Gulf, the JCPOA’s collapse, and the lived experiences of marginalised communities, from Shia minorities in Bahrain to Yemeni civilians. A systemic solution requires disentangling the Gulf from U.S.-Iranian proxy wars, lifting sanctions to reduce Iran’s reliance on militias, and investing in regional cooperation on climate and water security. Historical precedents like the 1971 GCC and the 2015 nuclear deal offer partial blueprints, but only a non-aligned security framework can break the cycle of violence.