Bulgaria’s geopolitical realignment: Ex-president’s rise reflects systemic EU-Russia energy dependency and democratic backsliding trends

Bulgarian Roma and rural communities have long resisted both Soviet-style centralisation and neoliberal privatisation, advocating for decentralised governance and communal resource management. Their exclusion from mainstream narratives reflects a broader erasure of indigenous and peasant epistemologies in favor of elite-driven geopolitical scripts. Traditional practices like *chitalishta* (cultural houses) and *kmetstva* (village councils) offer models of participatory democracy that challenge both Kremlin and EU technocratic approaches.

Bulgaria’s 20th-century history is marked by cyclical swings between Russian and Western influence, from the 1878 Russo-Turkish War to the 1944 Soviet-backed coup and post-1989 EU accession. Each transition has been accompanied by elite capture, where new rulers replace old oligarchs without dismantling systemic corruption. The current crisis echoes the 1996–97 financial collapse, when EU/IMF austerity triggered mass protests that paved the way for the ex-president’s mentor, Boyko Borissov.

Similar patterns of geopolitical realignment and democratic erosion are visible across the Balkans, where leaders like Vučić (Serbia) and Orbán (Hungary) blend pro-Russian rhetoric with EU funding while suppressing dissent. In Ukraine, the 2014 Maidan Revolution revealed how energy dependence and oligarchic networks can destabilise entire regions, offering a cautionary tale for Bulgaria. Non-Western observers often note that Bulgaria’s ‘Kremlin-friendly’ label obscures deeper questions about EU’s own failures in fostering inclusive governance.

Empirical studies link Bulgaria’s democratic backsliding to high levels of economic inequality, media concentration, and judicial politicisation (e.g., V-Dem Institute’s 2023 report). Energy security research shows how EU’s reliance on Russian gas (via TurkStream) has constrained Bulgaria’s foreign policy options, creating a ‘resource curse’ dynamic. Corruption indices (Transparency International) consistently rank Bulgaria among the EU’s worst, correlating with voter disillusionment and support for populist leaders.

Bulgarian avant-garde art (e.g., the *Red Flat* movement) has long critiqued both Soviet-style authoritarianism and Western neoliberalism, framing them as twin faces of extractivist modernity. Spiritual traditions like *praznik* (village festivals) and *kukeri* (masked rituals) symbolise resistance to centralised power, offering metaphors for decentralised governance. The ex-president’s rise is often framed in apocalyptic terms by both pro-Western and pro-Russian media, revealing a cultural anxiety about systemic collapse.

Scenario modelling suggests Bulgaria’s trajectory could follow Hungary’s ‘illiberal democracy’ path, with EU funds being redirected to loyalist networks while opposition is criminalised. Alternatively, a coalition of anti-corruption activists, Roma leaders, and rural municipalities could emerge as a counter-power, leveraging EU funds for grassroots development. Energy transition (e.g., solar/wind potential) could reduce reliance on Russian gas but requires dismantling oligarchic control over infrastructure.

Roma activists in Bulgaria have documented how geopolitical narratives are weaponised to distract from systemic racism, with parties like GERB and BSP exploiting anti-Roma sentiment for electoral gain. Rural communities, hit by depopulation and EU agricultural policies, often view both ‘pro-Western’ and ‘pro-Russian’ camps as equally extractive. Women’s rights groups highlight how the ex-president’s rhetoric reinforces patriarchal norms, while feminist movements demand accountability for gender-based violence in political spaces.