Geopolitical tensions threaten Strait of Hormuz stability: systemic risks to global energy flows and trade routes amid US-China-Iran power contest

Local Gulf communities, including Arab tribes and Persian minorities like the Ajam, have historically managed the Strait’s trade through kinship networks and shared resource agreements, predating state militarisation. Their traditional knowledge of seasonal trade winds, pearl diving routes, and seasonal migrations offers non-state solutions to chokepoint governance. However, these perspectives are systematically excluded from geopolitical discourse, which prioritises state sovereignty over communal stewardship. The erasure of indigenous maritime practices reinforces the narrative that only state navies can ensure 'stability.'

The Strait of Hormuz has been a geopolitical flashpoint since the 7th century, when Arab-Islamic expansion clashed with Persian Sassanian and later Ottoman control, embedding it in a millennia-old pattern of resource-driven conflict. The 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran, which reinstated the Shah to secure oil concessions, set a precedent for US intervention in the Gulf, later echoed in Iraq’s 1991 invasion and the 2003 US occupation. The 1980s 'Tanker War' during the Iran-Iraq conflict demonstrated how superpowers weaponise chokepoints, a tactic now mirrored in modern sanctions regimes and naval blockades.

In Chinese strategic thought, the Strait of Hormuz is framed as a 'chokepoint of the world economy' (*shijie jingji yaosu*), where disruptions threaten the 'community of shared future' (*mingyun gongtongti*) China seeks to build. This contrasts with Western narratives that view the Strait as a 'global commons' to be policed by naval powers, reflecting differing ontologies of sovereignty and trade. Meanwhile, in Islamic jurisprudence, the strait is subject to *hudud* (divine limits) on warfare, suggesting that even in conflict, certain zones must be demilitarised—a principle ignored in modern geopolitics.

The Strait of Hormuz is a high-risk zone for oil spills due to aging tankers, naval exercises, and sabotage, with a 2021 study in *Marine Pollution Bulletin* estimating a 10% annual probability of a major spill. Climate change exacerbates risks by intensifying storms and reducing water circulation, which could trap pollutants for decades. The strait’s narrowness (21 nautical miles) and depth (60m) make it uniquely vulnerable to blockades, with simulations showing that a 30-day closure could spike global oil prices by 50-70%. Yet, energy security models rarely incorporate these ecological and climatic feedback loops.

Persian Gulf poetry, such as the works of 14th-century poet Hafez, often depicts the sea as a divine force that both sustains and punishes humanity for greed, framing the Strait’s instability as a moral reckoning. In Sufi thought, the strait symbolises the 'narrow bridge' (*sirat*) between material and spiritual realms, where human hubris (e.g., fossil fuel dependence) leads to collapse. Contemporary Gulf artists, like Bahraini photographer Fatima Al Qatari, use visual art to critique militarisation by juxtaposing oil infrastructure with traditional dhows, challenging the erasure of local lifeways.

Scenario modelling by the *Energy Transitions Commission* suggests that a prolonged Strait closure could trigger a 30% reduction in global LNG supply, disproportionately affecting South Asia and Europe, while accelerating the shift to renewables in China and India. A 2023 *RAND Corporation* report warns that US-China naval competition in the Gulf could lead to a 'controlled escalation' scenario, where neither side backs down, risking a 1914-style miscalculation. Alternative futures include a Gulf-led 'Chokepoint Security Pact' (similar to ASEAN’s Zone of Peace) or a China-Iran-Russia naval alliance that bypasses Western dominance.

Iranian civilians, particularly in port cities like Bandar Abbas and Bushehr, face the brunt of sanctions-induced inflation (150% in 2022) and healthcare shortages, yet their stories are absent from Western media. Baloch separatists in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, who have long resisted Tehran’s control, are framed as 'terrorists' by both the Iranian state and Western outlets, obscuring their grievances over resource extraction and marginalisation. Arab communities in Iran’s Khuzestan province, where oil is extracted, suffer from environmental racism, with 80% of the region’s water diverted to refineries, yet their environmental activism is criminalised.