Geopolitical Tensions Escalate as US-UK Base in Indian Ocean Faces Alleged Iranian Missile Strikes: Systemic Drivers and Structural Risks

The Chagossian people, forcibly removed from Diego Garcia in the 1960s–70s to make way for the US-UK base, have long been denied justice, their claims to land and reparations systematically ignored by both the UK and US. Their displacement is a stark example of how militarisation and colonialism intersect, with lasting ecological and social consequences, including the destruction of their cultural heritage and traditional fishing practices. Indigenous perspectives on sovereignty and land stewardship are entirely absent from the mainstream narrative, despite their relevance to the ongoing conflict.

The Diego Garcia base is a relic of Cold War militarisation, established during a period of US-UK collaboration to project power in the Indian Ocean, a region historically contested by colonial empires. The base’s origins are tied to the forced displacement of the Chagossian people, a process enabled by British legal manipulation and US complicity, which set a precedent for future interventions in the Global South. The current tensions echo historical patterns of proxy conflicts in the region, such as the Soviet-US rivalry during the Afghanistan War, and the UK’s ongoing role in facilitating US military operations, including rendition flights.

In the Pacific, similar dynamics play out in Okinawa, where US military bases are a flashpoint for anti-colonial resistance, with locals framing the presence as a violation of sovereignty and a threat to their way of life. In Iran, the narrative of resistance against Western militarism is central to national identity, shaped by a history of foreign interference, including the 1953 coup and the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, which fuelled a culture of militarised self-reliance. Meanwhile, in Mauritius, the demand for Diego Garcia’s return is framed as a decolonisation issue, aligning with broader pan-African and Global South movements that reject neocolonial military arrangements.

Satellite imagery and open-source intelligence (OSINT) can provide evidence of missile launches, but verifying the origin and intent requires rigorous forensic analysis, including trajectory modelling and chemical fingerprinting of debris. The lack of transparent, independent verification in this case highlights the challenges of disinformation in conflict zones, where both sides may manipulate evidence to serve their narratives. Additionally, the ecological impact of military activity on Diego Garcia—such as coral reef damage from dredging and fuel leaks—remains understudied, despite its long-term consequences for marine biodiversity.

For the Chagossian diaspora, the loss of their homeland is not just a political issue but a spiritual wound, with oral histories and rituals tied to the islands serving as acts of resistance and cultural preservation. In Iran, the narrative of resistance is often framed through poetic and artistic expression, with figures like Forugh Farrokhzad and modern protest art linking personal and national struggles against oppression. Meanwhile, in Mauritius, the campaign for Diego Garcia’s return is infused with spiritual and ancestral symbolism, framing the struggle as a duty to the land and future generations.

If unchecked, this escalation could trigger a broader regional conflict, drawing in India, China, and other stakeholders with competing interests in the Indian Ocean, which handles 40% of global maritime trade. A worst-case scenario could involve a cycle of retaliatory strikes, the breakdown of diplomatic channels, and the further militarisation of the region, including the deployment of hypersonic weapons. Conversely, de-escalation could be achieved through multilateral negotiations, the demilitarisation of Diego Garcia, and the recognition of Chagossian rights, setting a precedent for conflict resolution in other contested regions.

The Chagossian people, despite decades of activism, remain largely invisible in mainstream narratives, their claims to justice sidelined by geopolitical interests. Women and youth within the Chagossian community, who bear the brunt of displacement’s social and economic impacts, are rarely consulted in policy discussions. Additionally, the voices of local fishermen and environmentalists in the Indian Ocean, who face the direct consequences of militarisation, are excluded from security debates, which prioritise state and military perspectives over grassroots concerns.