Australia-Japan warship deal exposes regional arms race driven by US pivot, neglecting Pacific peacebuilding and indigenous security frameworks

Indigenous Pacific communities have long framed security through relational and ecological paradigms, such as Māori *manaakitanga* and Aboriginal *kaitiakitanga*, which prioritize communal well-being and land stewardship over militarization. The Japan-Australia deal disregards these frameworks, instead embedding Indigenous territories within a US-led containment strategy that treats land as strategic terrain. Australia’s colonial dispossession of First Nations lands and Japan’s historical militarization of Okinawa (e.g., Henoko base protests) further illustrate how these agreements perpetuate structural violence against Indigenous peoples.

The deal echoes Cold War-era alliances like ANZUS (1951) and SEATO (1954), which positioned Pacific nations as proxies in US-Soviet rivalry, setting a precedent for today’s US-China tensions. Japan’s post-WWII pacifism, enshrined in its constitution, has been systematically eroded by US pressure (e.g., 2015 security laws), while Australia’s 2023 AUKUS pact with the US and UK deepened its integration into US military-industrial complexes. Historical parallels also include the 1987 Treaty of Rarotonga, which established a nuclear-free Pacific—an alternative model ignored in favor of arms races.

Pacific Islander leaders, such as former Tuvalu Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga, have condemned militarization as a threat to climate-vulnerable nations, arguing that security should focus on adaptation and sovereignty rather than geopolitical posturing. In contrast, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) operate under a US-centric security doctrine, while Australia’s defense white papers frame China as an existential threat—a narrative that aligns with Western strategic thinking but clashes with Pacific regionalism. The deal also ignores Japan’s historical trauma from WWII militarism, which many Japanese citizens still resist through movements like the Article 9 Association.

Militarization is empirically linked to increased regional tensions and arms races, as demonstrated by the 2022 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) data showing a 4.1% global rise in military expenditures. Studies on the ‘security dilemma’ (Jervis, 1978) show that defensive posturing often triggers counter-moves, escalating instability—a dynamic evident in the Japan-Australia-US trilateral. Meanwhile, climate security research (e.g., IPCC AR6) highlights how Pacific nations’ existential threats (sea-level rise) are exacerbated by militarization’s carbon footprint and resource diversion.

Pacific Islander artists and spiritual leaders, such as Samoan poet Sia Figiel and Aboriginal elder Rosalie Kunoth-Monks, have long framed security through ancestral connection to land and ocean, challenging Western notions of territorial control. In Japan, the *Heiwa* (peace) movement, rooted in Buddhist and Shinto traditions, has historically opposed militarization, as seen in the 1960s Anpo protests. The Japan-Australia deal, however, reduces security to a transactional exchange, erasing these spiritual and artistic traditions that view war as a violation of cosmic harmony.

Scenario modeling by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) suggests that continued arms buildup could lead to a 2035 crisis where miscalculation triggers conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea, with Australia and Japan as frontline participants. Alternative futures, such as the 2021 Pacific Islands Forum’s ‘2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent,’ prioritize climate resilience, indigenous governance, and demilitarized zones—yet are sidelined in favor of US-aligned security architectures. The Japan-Australia deal locks in a path-dependent trajectory, making de-escalation increasingly difficult as defense industries lobby for perpetuation.

Pacific Islander activists, such as those in the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific Movement, have condemned the Japan-Australia deal as a continuation of colonial militarization, noting how it disregards their 2019 plea for a ‘Pacific Way’ of security. Australian Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe and Māori Party co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer have highlighted how these agreements further dispossess Indigenous peoples, while Japanese peace groups like *Peace Boat* warn of normalized remilitarization. Women-led peace networks, such as the Asia-Pacific Women’s Watch, argue that militarization disproportionately harms women and children in conflict zones.