China’s green transition as geopolitical insulation: How structural energy shifts reshape global power dynamics amid Iran Strait crisis

Indigenous communities in lithium-rich regions of Chile and Argentina face displacement for ‘green’ mining, with lithium extraction consuming 2 million liters of water per ton—threatening sacred landscapes and subsistence agriculture. The transition is framed as ‘sustainable’ while replicating extractivist logics that have dispossessed Indigenous peoples for centuries. Traditional ecological knowledge, which prioritizes long-term ecosystem balance, is systematically excluded from energy policy debates.

The 1973 oil embargo revealed how energy shocks could be weaponized, leading to the creation of strategic petroleum reserves and the rise of petrodollar systems that reinforced US hegemony. China’s current strategy mirrors historical patterns where states seek energy autarky to avoid geopolitical leverage—seen in Nazi Germany’s synthetic fuel programs or Japan’s pre-WWII oil diplomacy. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is the latest iteration of a centuries-old struggle over control of maritime chokepoints, from the Dutch-Portuguese spice trade to British dominance of the Suez Canal.

In the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is not just an economic chokepoint but a cultural symbol of resistance against external domination, echoing historical narratives of Persian Gulf sovereignty. African nations, many of which are rich in critical minerals, view China’s green transition as an opportunity to renegotiate unequal trade relationships—but also as a new form of dependency if value-added processing remains in China. In South Asia, the discourse around energy transitions is often framed in terms of ‘development justice,’ linking green growth to reparations for colonial resource extraction.

Peer-reviewed studies show that China’s renewable energy expansion has reduced its oil import dependency by 12% since 2015, with solar and wind now supplying 15% of its electricity mix. The intermittency of renewables is mitigated by China’s dominance in battery storage and grid-scale batteries, which now account for 70% of global capacity. However, the scientific consensus warns that the transition’s reliance on rare earth minerals—where China controls 80% of processing—creates new vulnerabilities that could offset energy security gains.

In Chinese Daoist thought, the balance between ‘yin’ (passive, receptive) and ‘yang’ (active, expansive) energy is mirrored in the shift from fossil fuels (yang) to renewables (yin), but this is rarely acknowledged in policy discourse. Indigenous Australian and Māori artists depict green energy projects as ‘industrial ghosts’ haunting sacred lands, blending environmental grief with cultural defiance. In Persian poetry, the Strait of Hormuz is often described as a ‘vein of the earth,’ framing its closure not as a crisis but as a natural response to geopolitical wounds.

Scenario modeling by the International Energy Agency suggests that if China accelerates its renewable expansion, global oil demand could peak by 2028, destabilizing petrostates and triggering capital flight from fossil fuel assets. A ‘green mercantilist’ future could emerge where China dominates both supply chains and technological standards, creating a bipolar energy system with the US. However, if critical mineral supply chains remain concentrated, the transition may reproduce colonial patterns of resource control under a new guise.

Oil-dependent nations like Venezuela, Nigeria, and Angola face economic collapse as China’s green transition reduces global oil demand, yet their voices are excluded from energy security debates. Workers in China’s coal regions—disproportionately ethnic minorities—are being displaced without social safety nets, their labor histories erased in the rush to ‘green’ the economy. Women in rural Africa, who bear the brunt of energy poverty, are rarely consulted in energy transition plans despite bearing the highest costs of both fossil fuel dependence and renewable energy gaps.