Geopolitical shocks expose fossil fuel dependency, accelerating Asia's green hydrogen transition amid systemic energy vulnerabilities

Indigenous communities in Asia and the Middle East have long practiced energy systems rooted in cyclical sustainability, such as the Balinese *Subak* water temples or the Bedouin solar-powered water systems in Jordan, which operate without the extractive logic of fossil fuels. These systems are often erased in favor of high-tech solutions like green hydrogen, which require vast land and water resources, displacing local populations. The framing also ignores how Western sanctions on Iran have disrupted traditional energy-sharing networks across the region, forcing communities into dependency on centralized, state-controlled grids.

The current energy crisis echoes historical patterns of resource nationalism and geopolitical manipulation, such as the 1973 oil embargo or the 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran that reinstated the Shah to secure Western oil access. The Strait of Hormuz’s strategic importance has been a flashpoint since the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), yet mainstream analysis treats recent conflicts as isolated events rather than symptoms of a century-long struggle over energy sovereignty. The green hydrogen narrative also overlooks the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which exposed the vulnerabilities of export-led growth models dependent on volatile commodity prices.

In East Asia, Japan’s post-Fukushima energy transition prioritized solar and wind over hydrogen, reflecting cultural values of resilience and decentralization, while South Korea’s hydrogen roadmap is heavily state-driven, mirroring its chaebol-led industrial model. In the Middle East, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are leveraging green hydrogen for geopolitical leverage, framing it as a 'white oil' to replace fossil fuels in their export economies. Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, indigenous groups in Borneo and Papua have resisted large-scale hydrogen infrastructure, citing threats to sacred lands and biodiversity, opting instead for community-scale microgrids.

Green hydrogen’s viability remains contested in peer-reviewed literature, with studies highlighting its high energy losses (60–70% efficiency in electrolysis) and the need for 10–15x more renewable electricity than direct electrification for equivalent end-use. The current price parity with fossil fuels is artificially inflated by war-driven spikes in natural gas, not structural cost reductions in green hydrogen production. Additionally, lifecycle assessments show that green hydrogen’s carbon footprint depends heavily on the source of electricity—e.g., coal-powered grids in China or gas-powered desalination in the Gulf could negate its climate benefits.

Artistic and spiritual traditions across Asia and the Middle East often depict energy as a sacred force—e.g., the Hindu concept of *Prana* (life force) or the Islamic principle of *Mizan* (balance in creation)—which contrasts sharply with the extractive, mechanistic view of energy as a commodity. In Japan, the tea ceremony’s emphasis on impermanence (*mujō*) has influenced post-Fukushima energy policies toward decentralized, small-scale solutions. Meanwhile, Sufi poetry in Iran and Central Asia frequently uses metaphors of light and fire to critique the hubris of human control over natural resources, offering a counter-narrative to technocratic green hydrogen solutions.

Scenario modeling by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that green hydrogen could supply 10–15% of global energy demand by 2050, but only under aggressive policy interventions (e.g., carbon pricing, subsidies) and technological breakthroughs in electrolysis and storage. However, these models often underestimate the geopolitical risks of hydrogen trade, such as the potential for new choke points (e.g., hydrogen pipelines through conflict zones) or the weaponization of energy dependencies. Alternative futures, such as degrowth or circular economies, are rarely explored in mainstream energy discourse, despite their potential to reduce systemic vulnerabilities.

Marginalized communities in Asia—such as the Adivasi in India, the Dayak in Borneo, or the Rohingya in Bangladesh—are disproportionately affected by both fossil fuel extraction and green hydrogen infrastructure, facing land dispossession, water scarcity, and health risks from industrial pollution. Women in rural communities, who are often responsible for energy procurement, are excluded from decision-making processes on hydrogen projects, despite bearing the brunt of energy poverty. The framing also ignores the voices of climate refugees from Pacific Islands or Bangladesh, whose displacement is directly linked to fossil fuel-driven climate change, yet who are rarely consulted in energy transition planning.