US tariff ruling exposes structural fragility in global shipping decarbonisation efforts amid uneven power dynamics

Indigenous maritime traditions, such as the Polynesian wayfinding techniques or the wind-powered dhows of the Swahili Coast, offer low-carbon alternatives to industrial shipping but are systematically excluded from global decarbonisation frameworks. These systems prioritize harmony with ocean ecosystems, contrasting with the extractive logic of modern shipping. However, their integration is hindered by the IMO’s reliance on Western scientific paradigms and corporate R&D agendas.

The shipping industry’s decarbonisation crisis is rooted in the colonial-era extraction of global trade routes, where Northern powers monopolized maritime infrastructure while exploiting Southern labor and resources. The IMO’s voluntary Net Zero Framework echoes the 1997 Kyoto Protocol’s failures, where binding targets were watered down to appease corporate interests. Historical precedents, such as the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment, show how environmental governance often prioritizes economic growth over ecological integrity.

Cross-cultural comparisons reveal that while the US and EU frame decarbonisation as a market-driven transition, Global South nations often emphasize community resilience and traditional knowledge. For example, the Philippines’ ‘Sail to the Future’ initiative combines indigenous boat-building with modern solar technology, yet lacks international funding. Similarly, Pacific Island nations advocate for ‘blue carbon’ shipping corridors, which integrate mangrove restoration with low-emission trade routes—a model ignored by Western policymakers.

Scientifically, the IMO’s Net Zero Framework is underpinned by lifecycle assessments that favor carbon capture and offsets over direct emissions reductions, a methodology criticized for its reliance on unproven technologies. The US tariff ruling introduces regulatory uncertainty, as it incentivizes compliance with domestic standards (e.g., California’s clean fuel regulations) over global IMO guidelines. Meanwhile, emerging research on wind-assisted propulsion and hydrogen fuel cells remains underfunded despite their potential to halve shipping emissions by 2030.

Artistically, the global shipping industry’s decarbonisation is often framed through dystopian imagery of stranded ports and climate refugees, obscuring the poetic potential of sustainable maritime cultures. Indigenous seafaring traditions, such as the Māori waka or the Filipino balangay, embody a spiritual connection to the ocean that contrasts with the mechanistic view of shipping as a purely economic activity. These traditions could inspire regenerative design principles, such as hulls shaped by biomimicry or voyages timed to lunar cycles for optimal wind conditions.

Future scenarios suggest that without structural reforms, the US tariff ruling could bifurcate global shipping into a two-tier system: a high-cost, low-emission North Atlantic route and a high-emission, low-regulation Global South corridor. This risks accelerating ‘carbon leakage,’ where shipping companies relocate to jurisdictions with weaker environmental standards. Long-term, the integration of AI-driven route optimization and blockchain-based carbon tracking could enable equitable decarbonisation, but only if paired with binding international agreements and technology transfer to the Global South.

Marginalised voices—including small-scale fishermen, port workers in the Global South, and indigenous coastal communities—are systematically excluded from IMO negotiations, despite bearing the brunt of shipping pollution and climate impacts. Women, who comprise 40% of the informal maritime workforce in Africa and Asia, are particularly underrepresented in decision-making processes. Their exclusion perpetuates a system where corporate profits outweigh social and ecological justice, as seen in the Philippines, where shipbreaking yards in Alang employ hazardous labor practices with minimal oversight.