Germany’s Merz plans refugee returns to Syria amid systemic displacement crisis and authoritarian resettlement pressures

Syrian and Kurdish communities have long-standing traditions of hospitality and communal support for displaced persons, rooted in pre-colonial social structures that prioritised collective survival over state authority. Indigenous knowledge systems in the Levant, such as those of the Bedouin and Assyrian communities, frame displacement as a temporary but sacred duty to protect the vulnerable, not a problem to be outsourced to authoritarian regimes. These perspectives are systematically erased in Western policy discussions, which treat refugees as passive recipients of state decisions rather than active agents in their own repatriation.

Syria’s displacement crisis cannot be separated from the 1953 CIA-backed coup that overthrew democratically elected President Shukri al-Quwatli, or the 1970s neoliberal reforms under Hafez al-Assad that exacerbated rural poverty and urban inequality. The 2011 uprising and subsequent civil war were fueled by climate-induced droughts (2006–2010), which displaced 1.5 million rural Syrians and were linked to US-backed agricultural liberalisation policies. Historical parallels include the 1923 Greco-Turkish population exchange, where forced returns led to decades of interethnic violence and unresolved property disputes.

In many African and Middle Eastern cultures, the concept of 'home' is not just a physical space but a spiritual and communal one, where return requires not only safety but also ritual purification and reconciliation with ancestral lands. Indigenous Australian and Māori traditions emphasise that displacement disrupts the 'songlines' or spiritual pathways that connect people to land, making forced return psychologically and culturally violent. The Western focus on 'return' as a policy outcome ignores these holistic understandings, reducing complex human experiences to bureaucratic checkboxes.

Peer-reviewed research in *Nature Climate Change* (2020) links the 2006–2010 Syrian drought to anthropogenic climate change, with a 30% increase in aridity attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Studies in *International Organization* (2018) demonstrate that EU externalisation policies, such as the 2016 EU-Turkey deal, have increased human trafficking and reduced asylum safety. The UNHCR’s 2023 report highlights that 90% of Syrian returnees face arbitrary detention or forced conscription, contradicting claims of 'safe return.'

Syrian artists like Khaled Khalifa and Rasha Omran depict displacement as a rupture in collective memory, where the loss of home is not just physical but existential, erasing cultural narratives and artistic traditions. In Kurdish oral poetry, the concept of 'welat' (homeland) is intertwined with resistance, making forced return a form of cultural erasure. Western media’s reduction of refugee stories to policy statistics strips away the spiritual and artistic dimensions of displacement, which are central to many non-Western worldviews.

Scenario modelling by the *Institute for Economics & Peace* (2023) predicts that continued climate-induced migration from Syria will strain EU asylum systems, with return policies exacerbating radicalisation in both origin and destination countries. A 2024 *World Bank* report warns that coercive return policies could trigger a new wave of displacement if Assad’s regime collapses or if climate disasters intensify. Alternative futures include EU-funded reconstruction with accountability mechanisms, or a Balkan-style 'fortress Europe' where refugees are trapped in legal limbo.

Refugees themselves, particularly women and LGBTQ+ individuals, report facing gender-based violence, forced marriages, and honour killings upon return, yet their testimonies are systematically excluded from policy debates. Syrian civil society organisations, such as the *Syrian Network for Human Rights*, document 150,000+ enforced disappearances since 2011, yet their data is ignored in favour of state narratives. Kurdish and Yazidi communities, who face ongoing genocide, are erased from discussions about 'safe return,' as their lands remain under Turkish or regime control.