Israel targets Iran’s Caspian Sea naval assets amid escalating regional militarisation and geopolitical tensions

The Caspian Sea is home to indigenous communities (e.g., Tat, Talysh, and Noghay peoples) whose livelihoods depend on fishing and coastal ecosystems, which are increasingly degraded by military activities. Their traditional knowledge of marine biodiversity and sustainable resource management is systematically excluded from geopolitical discussions. Militarisation disrupts sacred sites and oral histories tied to the sea, eroding cultural continuity. Indigenous resistance to naval bases has been documented in Azerbaijan and Iran but is rarely acknowledged in Western media.

The Caspian Sea has been a geopolitical flashpoint since the 19th century, with Russia, Persia, and later the Soviet Union vying for control. The 1921 and 1940 treaties between Iran and the USSR established joint sovereignty, but these agreements were undermined by the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Iran’s naval presence in the Caspian dates to the 1970s, but tensions escalated post-2000 due to Azerbaijan’s oil-driven militarisation and Israel’s arms exports to Baku. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war set a precedent for Israeli-Iranian proxy conflicts in the region.

In Azerbaijani state narratives, Iran’s naval presence is framed as a threat to national sovereignty, while Iranian media portrays Israeli strikes as part of a U.S.-led campaign to isolate Tehran. Russian and Turkish media often downplay the conflict, focusing instead on energy transit routes through the Caspian. Central Asian states like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan view the militarisation as a distraction from their own resource disputes. Non-state actors, such as the Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary Guard, are framed differently in Persian vs. Azeri media, reflecting linguistic and sectarian divides.

The Caspian Sea is a closed basin with unique biodiversity, including endemic species like the Caspian seal and sturgeon, which are highly vulnerable to pollution and noise from military exercises. Satellite data shows increased naval traffic in the southern Caspian since 2015, correlating with higher rates of marine mammal strandings. Scientific studies highlight the lack of environmental impact assessments for military activities in the region. The sea’s salinity and water level fluctuations (e.g., from dam construction) further stress ecosystems already impacted by oil extraction.

In Persian poetry, the Caspian Sea is a symbol of life and renewal, often referenced in works by Ferdowsi and Rumi as a source of divine inspiration. Azerbaijani folk traditions, such as the mugham music of the Talysh, lament the sea’s militarisation as a violation of ancestral lands. Russian Orthodox and Islamic spiritual leaders in the region have issued rare joint statements condemning the arms race, framing it as a moral failure. Local artists in Baku and Rasht use murals and protest songs to resist the securitisation of the sea, though their work is censored or ignored by state media.

Scenario modelling by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) suggests that unchecked militarisation could lead to a regional arms race, with Azerbaijan and Iran acquiring hypersonic missiles by 2030. Climate change exacerbates risks by reducing water levels, increasing the likelihood of territorial disputes over shrinking coastlines. A 2023 report by the Caspian Environment Programme warns that military activities could trigger an ecological collapse, disrupting fisheries that support 10 million livelihoods. Diplomatic models, such as the proposed Caspian Security Dialogue, remain underfunded and ignored by major powers.

Fisherfolk communities in Gilan Province (Iran) and Absheron Peninsula (Azerbaijan) report declining catches and health issues linked to military pollution, but their testimonies are excluded from policy debates. Women-led environmental groups in Baku, such as the EcoLider Azerbaijan, have documented the gendered impacts of militarisation, including increased domestic violence near naval bases. Ethnic minorities like the Lezgins, who straddle the Iran-Azerbaijan border, are caught between state narratives and face repression for advocating for demilitarisation. Refugees from Syria and Iraq displaced by conflict in the Middle East are often resettled in militarised zones, further marginalising them.