Shell Projects Stagnant LNG Trade in 2026 Amid Persistent Gulf Shipping Bottlenecks and Global Energy Transition
Original framing: “Shell Sees LNG Trade Flat in 2026 as Hormuz Chokes Supply” — Bloomberg
Energy‑system models project that without substantial renewable integration, LNG demand will plateau, aligning with Shell's flat‑trade forecast. Climate science indicates that continued reliance on LNG locks in emissions incompatible with the 1.5 °C pathway, reinforcing the urgency for decarbonisation. Empirical data on shipping emissions around Hormuz also show that bottleneck congestion amplifies local air pollution, a factor often omitted in corporate forecasts.
The flat LNG outlook is not merely a product of the Hormuz bottleneck but a symptom of entrenched fossil‑fuel market structures, historical power dynamics, and insufficient climate policy.
By recognizing indigenous maritime expertise, historic parallels of resource chokepoints, and the marginalized voices of Gulf coastal communities, stakeholders can reframe risk management toward diversified, resilient energy networks. Integrating scientific modelling with artistic and spiritual narratives broadens public imagination, while trickster insights expose the absurdity of treating a single strait as destiny. Coordinated action—through diversified routing, climate‑just transition funds, and inclusive scenario planning—can dismantle the structural inertia that sustains the status quo and pave the way for a just, low‑carbon future.