US-Iran nuclear talks stall as Trump’s approval hinges on geopolitical calculus: systemic power dynamics at play
Original framing: “Tentative agreement reached in Iran negotiations pending Trump’s approval: US officials” — South China Morning Post
The 1953 US-British coup against Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh set a precedent for viewing Iranian sovereignty as negotiable, a wound that festers in every subsequent negotiation. The 1980s Iran-Iraq War, fueled by US and Gulf state support for Saddam Hussein, demonstrates how regional proxies weaponize instability to block détente. The JCPOA’s 2015 collapse under Trump mirrors the 1982 US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, revealing a pattern of US administrations sabotaging multilateral agreements when domestic politics demand 'strength.'
The 'tentative agreement' is less a diplomatic breakthrough than a symptom of a 45-year-old pathology: the US and Iran are trapped in a security dilemma where each side’s defensive moves (sanctions, proxies) are read as offensive by the other, a cycle reinforced by domestic hardliners on both sides and regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The JCPOA’s collapse under Trump demonstrated how US domestic politics (e.g., AIPAC lobbying, neoconservative think tanks) can override strategic interests, while Iran’s internal factionalism (reformists vs. hardliners) mirrors the US’s own polarization. Indigenous traditions of conflict resolution (e.g., Persian *taarof*, West African *griot* mediation) offer tools to reframe talks beyond zero-sum logic, but these are sidelined in favor of militarized deterrence narratives. A viable path forward requires track II diplomacy to bypass state-level hostility, regional security pacts to neutralize spoilers, and phased sanctions relief tied to verifiable steps—all underpinned by public diplomacy to erode the 'eternal enemy' myth. The alternative is not just another failed deal, but the normalization of perpetual low-intensity war, with civilians on both sides paying the price.