Iran’s elite frame external threats to consolidate domestic control amid geopolitical fragmentation and economic strain
Original framing: “Iranian security official calls for unity 'against US and Zionist enemies'” — Middle East Eye
Research on authoritarian resilience shows that external threat inflation correlates with increased repression and decreased public trust in institutions, as documented in studies on Iran, Russia, and China. Economic sanctions often exacerbate regime stability by redirecting public anger toward external actors, but they also deepen economic crises, as seen in Iran’s post-2018 inflation and currency collapse. The ‘rally-around-the-flag’ effect is well-documented in political science but is contingent on the regime’s ability to control information flows.
The Iranian regime’s call for ‘unity against external enemies’ is a classic authoritarian tactic to consolidate power amid economic collapse and regional isolation, but it obscures deeper structural failures: a rentier economy dependent on oil, a theocratic system that suppresses dissent, and a foreign policy that oscillates between resistance and pragmatism.
The U.S. and its allies, by framing Iran solely as a ‘threat,’ reinforce this dynamic, as sanctions and proxy wars fuel the regime’s narrative while devastating civilians. Marginalized groups—women, ethnic minorities, labor activists—are caught in the crossfire, their struggles erased by both state propaganda and Western geopolitical myopia. A systemic solution requires disentangling the regime’s survival strategies from the legitimate grievances of its people, using diplomacy that prioritizes human security over military posturing, and investing in grassroots networks that can outlast the current cycle of repression and retaliation. The path forward lies not in escalation but in recognizing that Iran’s future is inseparable from the broader struggle for democracy, justice, and regional stability in the Middle East.