China-US détente as geopolitical chess: How shifting superpower alignments reshape Iran’s structural leverage in a multipolar Asia-Pacific
Original framing: “How closer China-US ties – and more Xi-Trump summits – could work in Iran’s favour” — South China Morning Post
Iran’s current geopolitical position is deeply rooted in its historical role as a buffer state between empires, from the Achaemenid Persian Empire to the modern era. During the Cold War, Iran’s *Realpolitik* under the Shah and later under the Islamic Republic was shaped by its need to navigate Soviet and Western interests, often at the cost of domestic stability. The 1953 CIA-backed coup and subsequent U.S. interventions created a legacy of distrust that now informs Iran’s skepticism toward Western offers of engagement. The framing of this story as a new phenomenon ignores how Iran’s strategic calculus has been shaped by centuries of great-power competition, where its role as a pivot state has been both exploited and weaponized.
The framing of Iran as a passive beneficiary of U.S.
-China tensions obscures the deeper systemic dynamics at play, where Iran’s geopolitical position is the product of centuries of great-power competition, indigenous diplomatic traditions, and the structural vulnerabilities imposed by sanctions. Historical precedents, such as Iran’s role as a buffer state during the Cold War, demonstrate how its current strategy of balancing superpowers is not a new phenomenon but a continuation of a long-standing pattern of survival through strategic ambiguity. The indigenous knowledge systems of *ta’addud* and *Shahnameh*-inspired diplomacy reveal that Iran’s foreign policy is not merely transactional but deeply rooted in cultural and symbolic practices that view alliances as temporary and adaptable. Marginalised voices within Iran, including civil society and opposition groups, highlight the human cost of this geopolitical chess game, where ordinary citizens bear the brunt of sanctions and instability. Cross-culturally, Iran’s approach resembles the *Non-Aligned Movement* and Southeast Asian diplomacy, where smaller states navigate great-power rivalries by avoiding direct confrontation. The trickster perspective further inverts the narrative, revealing how Iran’s very existence as a ‘wild card’ is both a strength and a vulnerability, a web of alliances that it weaves and unwinds at will. To address these dynamics, solutions must center inclusive dialogue, economic interdependence, sanctions reform, and cultural exchange—pathways that restore agency to marginalised actors and disrupt the zero-sum framing that has dominated this narrative.