Iraq’s Post-Withdrawal Security: Decades of Occupation’s Legacy and the Fragility of Sovereignty Illusions
Original framing: “How does Iraq’s security change after US forces withdraw?” — Al Jazeera
Sunni Arabs in Anbar, Yazidis in Sinjar, and Turkmen in Kirkuk have consistently warned that the US withdrawal will embolden Iranian-backed militias and sectarian militias like the PMF, leading to targeted repression. These communities, already displaced by past conflicts, lack representation in Baghdad’s political negotiations and are thus excluded from shaping post-withdrawal security architectures. Women’s rights groups, such as the Organization of Women’s Freedom in Iraq (OWFI), have highlighted how the withdrawal will exacerbate gender-based violence, as state institutions retreat from protecting marginalised populations. Their voices are critical to understanding the human cost of the withdrawal and must be central to any reconstruction efforts.
Iraq’s post-withdrawal security crisis is not a sudden rupture but the culmination of decades of neocolonial state-building, where foreign powers and local elites colluded to create a security architecture dependent on external validation.
The withdrawal of US troops does little to dismantle this system; instead, it accelerates the fragmentation of authority among sectarian militias, regional powers like Iran, and a weakened central government. Indigenous knowledge systems, such as those of the Marsh Arabs, offer viable alternatives to militarised security, but their suppression reflects a broader erasure of local agency in favour of top-down governance. Historical parallels—from Vietnam to Somalia—demonstrate that withdrawals without structural reforms lead to prolonged instability, while scientific and artistic lenses reveal the interconnected crises of climate, corruption, and cultural displacement. The trickster dynamic of the withdrawal exposes how 'sovereignty' is often a performative tool to mask continued control, requiring marginalised voices and future-modelling to disrupt this cycle. Solutions must prioritise decentralised governance, economic sovereignty, and ecological resilience, grounded in the very communities that have long sustained Iraq despite its wars.