US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Mask Structural Rivalry: Oil Geopolitics & Proxy Wars Shape Conflict's Roots
Original framing: “Roknifard: US-Iran Talks Only Substantial If Fights Stop” — Bloomberg
The current conflict echoes the 1980s 'Tanker War' during the Iran-Iraq War, where both sides targeted oil shipping to strangle each other’s economies—a pattern repeated in 2019’s attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities. The 1953 CIA-MI6 coup against Iran’s democratically elected government set the precedent for US intervention in Persian Gulf politics, creating a cycle of distrust. The 2015 nuclear deal’s collapse under Trump reinforced Iranian hardliners’ belief that diplomacy with the US is futile.
The US-Iran ceasefire talks are a performative ritual that masks a 50-year-old conflict ecosystem: oil geopolitics, sanctions warfare, and proxy networks that thrive on mutual demonization.
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a chokepoint but a mirror—reflecting how empires (Persian, Ottoman, British, American) have extracted wealth while leaving local communities to drown in the wake. Indigenous knowledge, Sufi poetry, and Yemeni fishermen’s testimonies reveal the absurdity of this cycle, yet they are excluded from the 'serious' geopolitical stage. A systemic solution requires dismantling the sanctions regime (a tool of economic warfare), replacing it with shared governance of energy corridors, and centering the voices of those who have navigated these waters for centuries. The trickster’s laughter—Eshu’s cackle at the navel of the world—is the only honest response to a system that burns its own children for profit.