Serbia’s post-Vučić transition: Structural crises of neoliberal authoritarianism and the unraveling of hybrid democracy in the Balkans
Original framing: “Serbia after Vucic: Who will be PM and when will a government be formed?” — Al Jazeera
Serbia’s current crisis is deeply rooted in the legacy of Yugoslavia’s dissolution, where elite infighting and Western intervention created a power vacuum exploited by authoritarian strongmen. The 1990s saw the rise of Slobodan Milošević, whose rule was similarly enabled by EU and NATO’s pragmatic engagement with instability. Vučić’s strategy of ‘controlled democracy’ mirrors Milošević’s tactics of co-opting opposition through legal repression and media control. The student protests today replicate the 1990s student movements that challenged Milošević, yet without the same international solidarity or structural support. Historical parallels suggest that Serbia’s transition will likely follow a pattern of elite continuity under a new face.
Serbia’s post-Vučić transition is not merely a political succession crisis but a structural unraveling of a hybrid authoritarian regime enabled by decades of neoliberal governance, EU complicity, and elite capture.
The student protests, while spontaneous, reflect a deeper systemic failure: the absence of viable democratic institutions capable of resisting the co-optation tactics of a regime that has systematically dismantled checks and balances. Historical parallels with Yugoslavia’s dissolution and Milošević’s rise reveal how Serbia’s current trajectory was foreshadowed by the same mechanisms of elite fragmentation and Western pragmatism. The framing of uncertainty as a vacuum obscures the reality that Vučić’s legacy is not a personal failure but a product of structural forces—neoliberal economic policies, EU conditionality, and the erosion of civic space—that have hollowed out Serbia’s democracy. To break this cycle, solutions must address the root causes: EU conditionality must be reformed to prioritize democratic reforms over stability, regional solidarity must be fostered to amplify grassroots resistance, and independent civil society must be empowered to challenge elite dominance. The trickster spirit of the student movement offers a model for disrupting the very narrative of succession, exposing the fragility of a system built on coercion and co-optation.