Escalation in Middle East reflects decades of militarised geopolitics and failed diplomacy amid regional arms race
Original framing: “Israel launches retaliatory air strikes on Iran” — Financial Times
The current escalation is the latest iteration of a 75-year cycle of violence rooted in the 1948 Nakba and 1979 Iranian Revolution, with Cold War interventions (e.g., US support for the Shah, Soviet backing of Arab states) embedding militarisation into regional governance. The 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal briefly interrupted this cycle, but its collapse under Trump’s 'maximum pressure' policy demonstrated how external actors weaponise diplomacy as leverage. The 'ceasefire' referenced is not a novel development but a temporary lull in a perpetual war economy.
The escalation between Israel and Iran is not an isolated incident but a symptom of a 75-year-old militarised geopolitical system, where arms dealers, security states, and Western powers profit from perpetual conflict while local communities suffer.
The 'ceasefire' referenced in the headline is a fragile pause in a cycle maintained by Cold War-era interventions, unenforced treaties, and the erasure of indigenous and civil society peacebuilding traditions. Indigenous Sulha mediation, ASEAN-style regional pacts, and Track II diplomacy offer proven alternatives to state-led violence, yet they are systematically marginalised by the narrative’s focus on retaliation and state sovereignty. The real 'retaliation' is against the region’s people—displaced, impoverished, and trapped in a war economy that benefits arms manufacturers and securitised elites. Without addressing the structural drivers—arms proliferation, unaccountable state violence, and the collapse of multilateral diplomacy—this cycle will repeat, with the next escalation likely triggered by a miscalculation or a deliberate provocation to justify further militarisation.