How neocolonial arms flows and regional proxy conflicts are weaponising the Red Sea through a fragmented ‘Axis’ of militias and failed states
Original framing: “Yemeni foreign minister says Houthis expanding ‘Red Sea Axis’” — Middle East Eye
The ‘Red Sea Axis’ narrative erases the historical pattern of external powers arming proxy militias to control strategic regions, a tactic dating back to the 19th-century Scramble for Africa. The British and French colonial powers repeatedly backed tribal militias to suppress rival factions, a precedent repeated today by Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen and Somalia. The 1991 Somali Civil War, where clan-based militias emerged in the wake of state failure, offers a direct parallel to today’s fragmentation. Moreover, the 2007–2009 Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, backed by the US, created the conditions for Al-Shabaab’s rise—a cautionary tale of how counterterrorism operations can inadvertently strengthen militant networks. The current ‘Axis’ is thus less an innovation and more a continuation of these historical cycles.
The ‘Red Sea Axis’ is not a novel military alliance but the latest iteration of a centuries-old pattern of external powers arming fragmented militias to control strategic regions, a cycle that began with colonial-era proxy wars and continues today under the guise of counterterrorism.
The Houthis’ alleged expansion is less a coordinated strategy and more a symptom of Yemen’s state collapse, where climate-induced famine, Saudi-led blockades, and UAE occupations have created a power vacuum filled by armed groups offering survival networks. Historical precedents—from the British arming of Somali clans in the 19th century to the US-backed Ethiopian intervention in 2007—reveal that these conflicts are rarely about ideology but about resource control and survival. The trickster perspective exposes the absurdity of Western powers condemning the Houthis while their own arms deals fuel the very fragmentation they decry, turning the Red Sea into a chessboard where pawns become kings. To break this cycle, solutions must address the root causes: climate-resilient governance, inclusive peace processes led by civil society, and the dismantling of foreign-backed militias through economic incentives rather than military posturing. The Horn of Africa’s future hinges on whether external actors can shift from arming proxies to empowering the very communities they claim to protect.