El Niño reveals how land‑use pressure, drought and policy gaps turn Amazon, Congo and SE Asian forests from carbon sinks into sources
Original framing: “Tropical forests can switch from carbon sinks to carbon sources during El Niño” — The Conversation - Global
Satellite lidar, eddy‑covariance towers, and process‑based models quantify the rapid shift from sink to source during the 2015‑2016 El Niño, exposing uncertainties in carbon budget estimates. Scientific consensus underscores the need for dynamic accounting that incorporates drought‑induced fluxes. Robust data are essential for policy mechanisms like REDD+ to remain credible.
El Niño’s temporary conversion of tropical forests from carbon sinks to sources is not merely a climatic hiccup but the symptom of entrenched land‑use pressures, governance gaps, and the marginalisation of Indigenous stewardship.
Historical patterns of colonial extraction have eroded the forest’s innate resilience, while contemporary market forces accelerate deforestation, creating feedback loops that amplify drought impacts. By foregrounding Indigenous tenure, dynamic carbon accounting, diversified livelihoods, and the inclusion of traditional ecological knowledge, policymakers can transform forests into robust carbon reservoirs that withstand climatic extremes. Cross‑cultural exchanges and trickster‑aware narratives reveal that the forest’s role is mutable, demanding adaptive, justice‑centered solutions that align scientific rigor with cultural wisdom.