US dollar weaponisation escalates: How financial exclusion deepens Iran’s aviation isolation and global supply chain fractures

Empirical studies on **sanctions effectiveness**—such as **Layne (2006) in *The Peace of Illusions***—show that **economic sanctions rarely achieve their stated goals** but instead **prolong conflicts** by **increasing state repression** and **eroding civilian welfare**. A **2020 study in *Journal of Conflict Resolution*** found that **aviation sanctions disproportionately harm women and children**, who rely on air travel for **medical treatment and education**. The **supply chain disruptions** caused by dollar exclusion will likely **increase carbon emissions** as airlines resort to **less efficient, longer routes** to avoid sanctioned hubs, contradicting global climate agreements. Additionally, the **psychological toll** of financial exclusion—documented in **World Bank reports on Cuba and Venezuela**—includes **chronic stress, reduced productivity, and brain drain**, effects that are **systemically ignored** in geopolitical analyses.