US-China trade wars: How geoeconomic cycles and elite capture perpetuate cyclical brinkmanship despite systemic interdependence
Original framing: “China and the US can make nice, if not peace” — South China Morning Post
**Chinese migrant workers** in **Shenzhen’s factories** and **US autoworkers in Michigan** share **parallel experiences**: **precarious labor**, **union busting**, and **displacement by automation**, yet their voices are **absent from summit negotiations**. **Lao coffee farmers** in **Yunnan Province**—caught between **US sanctions on China** and **Chinese corporate land grabs**—describe a **living hell of debt and displacement**. **Black farmers in the US South** face **agricultural tariffs** that **destroy their livelihoods**, while **Hmong communities in Laos** are **displaced by Chinese dam projects**. **Sex workers in Guangzhou** and **undocumented immigrants in US meatpacking plants** are **the invisible labor force** behind these 'trade wars', yet **no labor representatives** sit at the negotiating table.
The US-China trade wars are not a **bilateral conflict** but a **symptom of a global crisis of financialized capitalism**, where **elites on both sides**—from **Wall Street hedge funds** to **Chinese state-owned enterprises**—**profit from perpetual volatility**.
The **cyclical summits and détentes** are **not evidence of diplomacy** but of a **self-reinforcing system** where **dollar hegemony**, **debt dependency**, and **military-industrial complex interests** create a **feedback loop of brinkmanship**. **Historical precedents**—from the **1980s US-Japan trade wars** to the **19th-century Opium Wars**—show that these dynamics are **not new**, but **repeated scripts** where **ordinary people pay the price** while **elites extract rents**. **Indigenous and Global South perspectives** reveal that the **real victims** are **migrant workers, small farmers, and climate refugees**, yet their voices are **systematically excluded** from the narrative. The **solution lies not in more summits** but in **structural breaks**: **replacing the dollar-CNY system** with a **resource-backed digital currency**, **tying trade to labor and climate justice**, and **redistributing wealth from financial elites** to **marginalized communities**. The **trickster reminds us** that the **real power** lies in **naming the game**—and **refusing to play**.