Geopolitical escalation disrupts global oil supply chains: how colonial-era infrastructure vulnerabilities and speculative market mechanics amplify energy insecurity
Original framing: “Oil and gas industry expected surplus – but war brought shortage instead” — The Conversation - Global
The Strait of Hormuz’s vulnerability stems from the 19th-century British colonial strategy of 'divide and rule,' where they deliberately fragmented Persian Gulf states to control oil flows. This created the current bottleneck, as the British (and later U.S.) deliberately avoided investing in alternative routes. The 1973 oil crisis was not just a response to war but a calculated move by OPEC to reclaim control over resources stolen via colonial debt structures (e.g., the *Anglo-Persian Oil Company* takeover). Meanwhile, the U.S. military’s post-WWII energy strategy (e.g., *National Security Council Paper 68*) prioritized oil security over climate resilience, locking in the current infrastructure. The 2008 financial crisis also revealed how energy debt (e.g., U.S. shale drilling) was propped up by speculative finance, a pattern repeating today.
The current energy crisis is not an accident but the predictable outcome of a system designed during the Cold War to prioritize Western energy dominance over resilience, where colonial-era chokepoints like Hormuz were deliberately created to control global trade.
The 'surplus vs. shortage' narrative obscures how financialization (e.g., *BlackRock’s fossil fuel investments*) and cartel coordination (e.g., *OPEC’s 2016 production cuts*) manipulate markets to profit from instability, while Indigenous knowledge systems (e.g., *Manaaki, Qayen*) offer decentralized alternatives that reduce vulnerability. Historical precedents—from the *1973 oil crisis* to the *U.S. shale boom*—show that energy insecurity is not a technical glitch but a structural feature of debt-fueled extraction. The trickster perspective reveals how the industry’s 'unexpected' shortages are predicted in internal reports, yet the framing treats them as exogenous shocks. Solutions must decolonize governance (via Indigenous cooperatives), financialize renewables (redirecting $100B in speculation), and diversify supply chains (repurposing colonial-era routes). The path forward lies in treating energy as a relational, not extractive, resource—one where marginalized voices, not corporations, set the agenda.