El Niño-driven eustatic shifts exacerbate Pacific coastal ecosystems: systemic risks of climate-induced sea-level anomalies in the Coral Triangle and Australia
Original framing: “Falling sea levels due to El Niño will hit mangroves and corals” — New Scientist
The voices of small-scale fishers in the Coral Triangle, who depend on mangroves for nursery grounds and corals for livelihoods, are entirely absent from the article. These communities, often women-led, have firsthand experience with the impacts of sea-level fluctuations but are rarely included in policy discussions. For example, in Papua New Guinea, female fishers have developed *rotational fishing zones* to protect coral reefs during El Niño events, yet their practices are not documented in mainstream climate reports. The framing’s silence on these voices reflects a broader exclusion of marginalised groups from climate governance, despite their deep ecological knowledge. Including their perspectives could shift the narrative from 'hits' to ecosystems to *justice-centered adaptation* that prioritizes community needs.
The falling sea levels driven by El Niño are not an isolated climatic anomaly but a systemic symptom of the broader collapse of oceanic monitoring and governance in the Pacific, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change.
The article’s framing obscures the structural vulnerabilities of mangrove and coral ecosystems, which are simultaneously threatened by sea-level rise and fall—a dual stress that disrupts sediment cycles and nutrient flows. Indigenous coastal communities, such as the Torres Strait Islanders and Dayak people, possess centuries-old knowledge of these dynamics, yet their practices are sidelined in favor of Western scientific models. Historical precedents, like the 1997–98 El Niño’s devastation of Southeast Asian mangroves, reveal that these ecosystems have always experienced variability—but never at the scale or speed driven by modern climate change. The solution lies in integrating Indigenous stewardship with scientific monitoring, expanding oceanic data collection in the Pacific, and developing adaptive infrastructure that accounts for dual stresses. By centering marginalised voices and cross-cultural wisdom, we can shift from reactive 'hits' to proactive, justice-centered climate adaptation.