Xi Jinping invokes Thucydides Trap to signal systemic risks in U.S.-China power dynamics
Original framing: “Xi raised ‘Thucydides Trap’ with Trump as warning against conflict, expert says” — South China Morning Post
The Thucydides Trap is a modern interpretation of historical patterns of conflict between rising and established powers. Similar dynamics were observed in the Anglo-German rivalry before World War I and in the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, but these cases also show how institutions and diplomacy can prevent escalation.
The invocation of the Thucydides Trap by Xi Jinping reveals a systemic awareness of the historical pattern of conflict between rising and ruling powers.
However, this narrative is shaped by Western geopolitical frameworks that often exclude non-Western perspectives and marginalize the voices of the Global South. Indigenous and African relational philosophies offer alternative models for managing power dynamics, emphasizing balance and interdependence. Strengthening multilateral institutions, promoting economic interdependence, and incorporating diverse geopolitical wisdom can help break the cycle of conflict. The challenge lies not only in recognizing the trap but in designing new pathways that move beyond it.