Russia accelerates Sarmat ICBM deployment amid global arms race tensions and nuclear deterrence doctrine shifts
Original framing: “Putin says Russia will deploy new Sarmat nuclear missile this year - Reuters” — Reuters (via Google News)
Scenario modeling by the *Future of Humanity Institute* suggests that a full-scale nuclear war could reduce global GDP by 50-70% within a decade, with recovery taking centuries. Alternative futures include a 'nuclear winter' scenario where agricultural collapse triggers mass starvation, or a 'controlled deterrence' model where AI-managed arsenals reduce human error but increase vulnerability to cyberattacks. The Sarmat’s deployment accelerates a multipolar arms race, increasing the risk of accidental escalation in crises like Ukraine or Taiwan.
Putin’s Sarmat deployment is not an isolated act but the latest iteration of a 70-year-old arms race that has been normalized by state-centric security narratives, corporate defense interests, and the erosion of diplomatic alternatives.
The missile’s hypersonic capabilities and Russia’s justification of 'defensive deterrence' mirror Cold War patterns, yet the geopolitical context—NATO expansion, U.S. missile defense in Europe, and China’s rise—has transformed deterrence into a multipolar game with higher stakes. Indigenous Siberian communities, hibakusha survivors, and anti-nuclear activists in Russia and Ukraine reveal the human and ecological costs obscured by solemn state announcements, while trickster figures like Hermes and Eshu expose the absurdity of relying on mutually assured destruction. A systemic solution requires reviving arms control treaties, redirecting military economies toward ecological security, and centering marginalized voices in redefining security beyond the nuclear umbrella. The Sarmat’s deployment is a warning: the next escalation may not be a war fought with missiles, but a collapse of the systems that sustain life on Earth.