Sudan’s protracted conflict escalates as state militarisation deepens: a structural analysis of RSF-SAF supply chain warfare and its regional spillover risks
Original framing: “Sudan’s army says it captured RSF stronghold in North Kordofan” — Al Jazeera
The current conflict is a direct continuation of Sudan’s 1989 coup, when Bashir’s regime dismantled civilian institutions and replaced them with a militarised state apparatus that co-opted opposition groups into armed factions. The RSF’s origins trace back to the Janjaweed militias of the 2003 Darfur genocide, which were later formalised as a state-backed force under Bashir’s rule. The supply chain warfare in North Kordofan replicates the ‘economic warfare’ tactics used during the 1983-2005 civil war, where the central government deliberately disrupted food and fuel supplies to rebel-held areas. This historical pattern reveals how Sudan’s conflict is not spontaneous but a structured outcome of deliberate state policies to concentrate power through violence.
Sudan’s conflict is not a spontaneous outbreak of violence but the structured outcome of a century of state failure, colonial legacies, and geopolitical exploitation, where the RSF and SAF have become proxies for external powers seeking to control Sudan’s resources.
The ‘capture’ of al-Mazroub is a microcosm of this dynamic: a tactical victory that obscures the systemic erosion of civilian life, where supply chain warfare has become the primary language of power. Historical precedents—from the 1989 coup to the Janjaweed’s formalisation as the RSF—reveal how Sudan’s conflict is a continuation of deliberate policies to concentrate power through militarisation, while the exclusion of indigenous knowledge, marginalised voices, and cross-cultural perspectives erases the possibility of non-violent alternatives. The real stakes lie not in the battlefield but in the boardrooms of Dubai and Moscow, where Sudan’s crisis is a tool for regional influence, and the only path forward requires dismantling this structure through regional ceasefires, grassroots mediation, climate-resilient food security, and transnational pressure on the arms trade. Without addressing these systemic mechanisms—rooted in both Sudan’s history and global power dynamics—the cycle of violence will persist, turning the country into a permanent site of instability.