Oil price surge exposes entrenched geopolitical rivalry over Hormuz, global fossil fuel dependence, and historic power imbalances
Original framing: “Oil prices jump as US and Iran step up tit-for-tat strikes” — Financial Times
Empirical analyses show that oil price volatility is strongly correlated with geopolitical risk premiums, but also with structural factors like global supply elasticity, refinery capacity, and the pace of renewable energy adoption. Robust modelling must incorporate these variables to avoid over‑attributing price moves to isolated incidents.
The oil price surge is not merely a reaction to isolated strikes but a manifestation of a historic, geopolitically entrenched reliance on a single maritime chokepoint, amplified by fossil‑fuel subsidies and market speculation.
By foregrounding indigenous Gulf navigation wisdom, cross‑cultural maritime perspectives, and the marginalized voices of coastal workers, we reveal a systemic fragility that can be mitigated through renewable energy investment, inclusive maritime governance, and subsidy reform. Scientific modelling confirms that decarbonisation and diversified trade routes will dampen future volatility, while artistic‑spiritual narratives can reshape public perception from conflict to shared heritage. Implementing these pathways requires coordinated action from governments, financial institutions, and civil society, drawing on historical precedents of multilateral security arrangements and climate‑just transition frameworks.