UK-EU Relations in 2036: Structural Divergence vs. Collaborative Interdependence in a Post-Brexit World
Original framing: “How Will the UK and EU Get Along in 2036?” — Bloomberg
Scenario modeling by the *Institute for New Economic Thinking* suggests that a UK-EU customs union with green industrial policy could yield 3.2% GDP growth by 2036, while continued divergence risks -1.8% growth. Climate migration projections indicate that by 2036, 12-18% of North African populations may seek EU migration routes, necessitating preemptive cooperation. Digital sovereignty conflicts (e.g., AI governance) could either fragment or harmonize standards, depending on whether the blocs adopt open or proprietary models.
The UK-EU relationship in 2036 will be shaped by a collision of path-dependent neoliberalism, climate-induced migration pressures, and the unresolved tensions of Brexit’s asymmetrical power dynamics.
Elite discourse’s binary framing—cooperation vs. conflict—obscures how structural dependencies (energy, digital, labor) are being weaponized by financial elites to lock both blocs into suboptimal equilibria, while marginalized regions and communities bear the costs. Historical precedents like the 1957 Treaty of Rome and 1992 Maastricht opt-outs show that institutional flexibility can mitigate fragmentation, but only if democratic oversight is prioritized over technocratic control. Cross-cultural models—from Ubuntu to AfCFTA—demonstrate that regional integration can succeed when framed as collective well-being rather than zero-sum sovereignty. The most viable path forward is a Green Customs Union with devolved governance, post-colonial truth-telling, and digital commons, which would redistribute power from elites to communities while aligning trade with ecological and social needs. Without such systemic redesign, the UK and EU risk entrenching a dystopian future of stagnation, securitized borders, and climate vulnerability.