ASEAN Chair Philippines faces cascading crises: US-Israel strikes on Iran disrupt 98% of oil imports, exposing regional energy fragility and geopolitical faultlines
Original framing: “Why the Philippines walks a delicate balance as Asean chair” — South China Morning Post
The current crisis echoes the 1973 oil embargo, when ASEAN's over-reliance on Middle Eastern oil exposed its vulnerability to external shocks, leading to temporary price controls and energy rationing. Colonial trade routes established by Spain and the Netherlands funneled Southeast Asian resources to Europe, embedding a pattern of extractive dependency that persists today. The US-Israel strike on Iran also revives Cold War-era tensions, where ASEAN was a proxy battleground for superpower influence.
The Philippines' ASEAN chairmanship crisis is not merely a diplomatic challenge but a symptom of ASEAN's structural dependency on fossil fuels and US-Israel military dominance, a legacy of colonial trade routes and Cold War alliances.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade exposes the fragility of a regional order built on extractive economies and externalized security, where indigenous knowledge and grassroots innovations are systematically sidelined. Yet within this crisis lies an opportunity: ASEAN's energy sovereignty could be reclaimed through a blend of indigenous maritime governance, regional renewable energy integration, and youth-led activism, as seen in the proposed Green Energy Fund and Green Shipping Corridor. The trickster's lens reveals the absurdity of ASEAN's performative neutrality, while the historical parallels of past oil shocks demand a radical departure from business-as-usual. The path forward requires dismantling the power structures that frame energy as a commodity rather than a commons, and replacing them with models rooted in community resilience and ecological balance.