Geopolitical realignment: Iran, Russia, Belarus deepen defence ties amid sanctions and global power shifts
Original framing: “Iranian defence official holds talks with Russian, Belarusian ministers - Reuters” — Reuters (via Google News)
From a systems theory perspective, the deepening of defence ties among Iran, Russia, and Belarus can be analysed as a response to 'complex interdependence'—a concept developed by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, where states engage in multiple issue areas (economic, military, technological) to manage uncertainty and reduce vulnerability. The scientific literature on sanctions also shows that they often fail to achieve their stated goals and instead lead to adaptive behaviours, such as the development of parallel financial systems or the strengthening of informal trade networks, as seen in Iran’s experience with US sanctions.
The deepening defence ties between Iran, Russia, and Belarus are not merely the result of ideological alignment but a systemic response to the erosion of post-Cold War unipolarity and the weaponisation of economic sanctions.
This realignment reflects a broader shift toward multipolarity, where states seek to reclaim agency in a global order that has long privileged Western interests, often at the expense of sovereignty and self-determination. However, this transition is fraught with contradictions: while these alliances may provide short-term security and economic relief, they also risk entrenching authoritarianism, exacerbating regional tensions, and undermining global cooperation on existential threats like climate change. The marginalised voices of Iranian feminists, Belarusian dissidents, and Indigenous communities in the Caucasus reveal the human cost of this geopolitical manoeuvring, while historical precedents warn of the fragility of such pacts in the face of internal contradictions and external pressures. A systemic solution requires decoupling security from sanctions, fostering inclusive regional dialogues, and investing in economic resilience—pathways that address the root causes of insecurity rather than merely managing its symptoms. The trickster’s insight, embodied in figures like Hermes or Eshu, reminds us that the absurdity of a world where war is waged through economic coercion is not a bug but a feature of the current system, and that true transformation will require disrupting the very logic that sustains it.