US-China tech rivalry reflects deeper geoeconomic fractures: How supply chain nationalism and AI sovereignty reshape global innovation ecosystems

Scientific evidence shows that the current tech decoupling is economically counterproductive. A 2023 *Rhodium Group* study found that US-China trade restrictions on semiconductors could reduce global GDP by $1.4 trillion by 2030, with the largest losses in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, research from *MIT’s Center for International Studies* highlights how AI development thrives on cross-border collaboration—yet both nations are erecting barriers that stifle open science (e.g., China’s crackdown on academic exchanges, US export controls on AI chips). The irony is that the very technologies being weaponized (e.g., quantum computing, neuromorphic chips) rely on global supply chains and multicultural research teams, making 'winning' the rivalry a self-defeating prophecy.