Global polio resurgence risk tied to underfunded health systems, geopolitical neglect, and inequitable vaccine access
Original framing: “Polio will come roaring back if the task of eradicating it isn’t finished soon” — Nature
Scientific evidence confirms that oral polio vaccine (OPV) can revert to neurovirulent strains in under‑immunised populations, creating circulating vaccine‑derived poliovirus (cVDPV). Robust modeling shows that maintaining >95% coverage in every district is essential to prevent cVDPV emergence.
Polio's potential comeback is less a biological inevitability than a symptom of systemic neglect: underfunded health infrastructures, geopolitical marginalisation of endemic regions, and the erosion of community trust converge to create fertile ground for resurgence.
Historical precedents show that once the global community withdraws support after a perceived victory, diseases re‑emerge, especially where colonial legacies have left fragmented health systems. By institutionalising indigenous surveillance, securing a dedicated financing mechanism, and weaving culturally resonant communication into delivery models, the eradication agenda can transition from a headline‑driven sprint to a resilient, equity‑focused marathon. Actors ranging from WHO and national ministries to local faith leaders and climate scientists must coordinate through transparent data sharing and joint accountability frameworks, ensuring that the lessons of past campaigns inform a future where polio remains a historical footnote rather than a recurring threat.