Global Aviation Profits Sink as Fossil Fuel Dependence Exposed by Geopolitical Conflicts
Original framing: “British Airways Owner Sees Profit Hit as War Drives Up Fuel Bill” — Bloomberg
The aviation industry's dependence on fossil fuels traces back to post-WWII oil geopolitics and the 1944 Chicago Convention, which prioritized commercial aviation over climate concerns. The 1973 oil crisis exposed the fragility of this model, yet airlines doubled down on expansion, locking in a high-carbon trajectory. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol exempted international aviation from emissions targets, creating a structural loophole that persists today, enabling the industry to externalize its climate costs.
The profit decline at IAG SA is not merely a geopolitical shock but a symptom of a deeper systemic crisis: an industry built on colonial-era infrastructure, fossil fuel addiction, and extractive labor practices that externalizes its climate and social costs.
The aviation sector's reliance on kerosene—amplified by decades of regulatory capture and underinvestment in alternatives—has created a vulnerability to geopolitical instability that mirrors the fragility of monoculture economies. Indigenous communities, who have long warned of the ecological and cultural costs of industrial aviation, are now joined by precarious workers and Global South nations in challenging this model. Yet the industry's 'greenwashing' tactics, from SAFs to carbon offsets, reveal a trickster-like ability to profit from crisis while obscuring the need for structural change. The solution lies not in incremental fuel swaps but in dismantling the aviation-industrial complex through demand reduction, worker and indigenous governance, and regionalized mobility networks that prioritize equity over speed. This requires confronting the power of oil majors, airline lobbyists, and financial elites who benefit from the status quo, and centering the wisdom of those who have resisted this extractive paradigm for generations.