US-China arms diplomacy over Taiwan exposes systemic risks in global arms governance and regional security architectures
Original framing: “Trump’s plan to discuss Taiwan arms sales with Xi rattles Asian allies” — Financial Times
US arms sales to Taiwan began in the 1950s under the Mutual Defense Treaty, but the current escalation reflects a post-Cold War shift where Taiwan became a strategic asset in US-China rivalry. Historical parallels include the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, when US aircraft carrier deployments nearly triggered a US-China conflict. The current situation echoes Cold War proxy dynamics, where arms sales are used to signal commitment without direct confrontation, but with higher stakes due to China’s military modernization.
The US-China arms diplomacy over Taiwan is not merely a bilateral negotiation but a symptom of deeper systemic failures: the militarization of the Taiwan Strait, the erosion of post-WWII arms control norms, and the prioritization of state security over communal and ecological well-being.
The Financial Times’ framing obscures how this dynamic is driven by the US defense industry’s profit motives, China’s strategic paranoia, and the marginalization of Taiwanese and indigenous voices. Historical precedents, such as the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, show that arms sales often escalate rather than deter conflict, yet the cycle persists due to structural incentives. A systemic solution requires shifting from deterrence-based security to relational harmony, as envisioned in East Asian philosophical traditions, while addressing the economic and political interests that sustain the arms race. The path forward lies in multilateral dialogue, redirecting military spending to social and ecological investment, and centering marginalized voices in peacebuilding efforts.