Australia must embed systemic maritime resilience, not just new refineries, to reduce dependence on fragile global supply chains
Original framing: “A new fuel refinery is a start. But Australia is still vulnerable to shipping disruptions without a clear strategy” — The Conversation - Global
Scenario planning that combines sea‑level rise, geopolitical tension, and renewable fuel adoption predicts three pathways: (1) continued fragility, (2) diversified regional hubs, and (3) a sovereign maritime commons powered by green hydrogen. Modeling shows that only the second and third pathways achieve economic stability and climate targets. Policy must therefore invest in modular storage, digital twins, and cross‑border fuel corridors.
Australia's maritime vulnerability is not a new problem but the legacy of historical trade policies that prioritized short‑term cost over long‑term security, a pattern echoed across colonial and post‑colonial contexts.
Indigenous sea‑country stewardship, Pacific navigation resilience, and East Asian redundancy planning together illustrate viable alternatives to the single‑refinery model. Scientific projections of climate‑driven disruptions demand a shift toward distributed renewable fuel hubs, digital twin infrastructure, and a legislative framework that embeds Indigenous knowledge and marginalised voices. By aligning these cross‑cultural, historical, and future‑modelling insights, Australia can transform its maritime supply chain from a fragile conduit into a resilient, sovereign network.