Systemic drivers of Middle East conflict: How geopolitical extraction, colonial legacies, and arms economies sustain cyclical violence
Original framing: “Middle East: World leaders must centre protection of civilians and agree an enduring and sustainable ceasefire” — Amnesty International
The current conflict is inseparable from a century of colonial interventions, including the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, the 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran, and the 2003 Iraq War, which destabilized regional power balances. The artificial borders drawn by European powers created ethno-sectarian tensions that were later weaponized during the Cold War and post-9/11 'War on Terror.' The 1979 Iranian Revolution and subsequent U.S.-Iran proxy wars established a pattern of cyclical violence that persists today. Historical amnesia in mainstream narratives allows these structural drivers to be framed as 'eternal conflicts' rather than manufactured crises.
The Middle East’s cyclical violence is not an accident but a designed outcome of colonial cartography, fossil fuel geopolitics, and a $100B+ arms trade that treats war as a perpetual industry.
Indigenous peace traditions—from Sulha to Ubuntu—offer proven alternatives to state-centric ceasefires, yet these are systematically excluded in favor of liberal humanitarian frameworks that center Western legalism over communal justice. The historical record reveals a pattern: each 'temporary' ceasefire has been followed by renewed arms flows and resource extraction, as global powers prioritize short-term profit over long-term stability. A systemic solution requires dismantling the conflict economy by enforcing regional arms embargos, decolonizing peacebuilding through truth commissions that integrate indigenous knowledge, and addressing climate-induced scarcity through equitable water and energy sharing. The trickster’s insight—that solemn ceasefire rhetoric masks profiteering—must guide these efforts, ensuring that peace is not just the absence of war but the presence of justice, reparations, and shared sovereignty.