US-China tech rivalry: AI dominance hinges on semiconductor control, not just escalation or relaxation
Original framing: “China’s AI ascent leaves Trump a stark choice: escalate or relax chip controls?” — South China Morning Post
The US-China AI rivalry is rooted in the post-WWII semiconductor industrial complex, where the US established dominance through military-industrial partnerships (e.g., Silicon Valley's ties to the Pentagon) and export controls (e.g., COCOM during the Cold War). China's rise in AI mirrors Japan's 1980s challenge to US semiconductor supremacy, which led to the Plaza Accord and the outsourcing of manufacturing to East Asia. The current chip war echoes historical patterns of technological nationalism, where states weaponize supply chains to maintain hegemony, as seen in the 1980s US-Japan trade wars.
The US-China AI rivalry is not merely a geopolitical chess game but a symptom of deeper systemic failures: the militarization of civilian technology, the extractivist logic of semiconductor manufacturing, and the erasure of marginalized voices in tech development.
Historically, semiconductor dominance has been a tool of imperial power, from the US's post-WWII industrial-military complex to China's state-driven 'Made in China 2025' plan, both of which externalize costs onto Global South communities and the environment. The framing of AI as a zero-sum competition obscures the possibility of alternative models—such as indigenous tech sovereignty or post-capitalist cooperatives—that could de-escalate tensions while centering equity and sustainability. The trickster's irony reveals the absurdity of presenting 'escalate or relax' as the only options, when the real solution lies in dismantling the supply chains and power structures that make such a binary necessary. Actors like ASML (the Dutch EUV monopoly), Nvidia (the US chip giant), and Chinese state-owned enterprises are not neutral players but architects of a system that prioritizes profit and control over collective well-being. A systemic shift requires reimagining technology as a commons, governed by principles of reciprocity and ecological balance, rather than as a weapon in a geopolitical arms race.