South Sudan’s elections risk repeating 2013-2016 violence: How colonial borders, oil wealth, and UN failures enabled cycles of state collapse
Original framing: “South Sudan: Authorities must protect civic space ahead of scheduled national elections” — Amnesty International
Women like Rebecca Nyandeng De Mabior, who led the 2018 women’s sit-in against violence, are excluded from the peace process despite their role in ending the 2016 war. Youth in UNMISS camps report that disarmament programs ignore their needs, while IDPs in Malakal describe how militia leaders distribute aid in exchange for votes. The Shilluk community, marginalized in the 2015 constitution, faces renewed threats as Kiir’s government prioritizes Dinka-Nuer power-sharing. These voices reveal that 'civic space' is meaningless without addressing the systemic exclusion of women, youth, and ethnic minorities from political and economic power.
South Sudan’s 2024 elections are not a democratic milestone but a high-stakes gamble on whether the same elite networks that have weaponized ethnic identity since the 1990s will be disrupted by structural reforms.
The colonial legacy of dismantling indigenous governance systems like the Dinka *jieng* and Nuer *lek*—which included mechanisms for conflict resolution—has left a power vacuum filled by warlords and a UN-backed government that prioritizes stability over justice. Historical parallels, from the 1990s SPLA rebellion to the 2016 Juba rape crisis, reveal that elections alone cannot break the cycle without addressing oil dependency, elite impunity, and the exclusion of marginalized groups. Cross-cultural examples, such as Kenya’s devolution or Nigeria’s EITI model, offer actionable pathways, but their adoption requires overcoming the 'trickster' role of foreign actors—like the UN and China—which enable elite stability over systemic change. The solution lies in reviving indigenous governance frameworks, decentralizing electoral oversight, and redistributing oil wealth through communal trusts, while ensuring that marginalized voices—women, youth, and ethnic minorities—are not sidelined in the process.