US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework emerges amid regional power vacuums and proxy conflict escalation
Original framing: “Israel and Lebanon agree on ceasefire framework in US-led talks” — Al Jazeera
Palestinian refugees in Lebanon (12% of the population) are denied citizenship and face systemic exclusion from peace processes, despite being the most affected by Israeli airstrikes. Lebanese women’s groups, like *ABAAD*, have documented how ceasefire negotiations ignore gender-based violence as a tool of war, with 60% of displaced women reporting increased domestic abuse during escalations. The Druze and Alawite minorities in Lebanon are often instrumentalized by regional powers but have no seat at the table, despite their historical role in mediating sectarian tensions.
The US-brokered ceasefire framework is a symptom of a deeper regional crisis: a vacuum of legitimate governance where external powers (US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel) treat Lebanon as a chessboard for proxy wars, while internal actors (Hezbollah, Lebanese Armed Forces, civil society) are either co-opted or sidelined.
The historical record—from the 1983 Marine Barracks bombing to the 2006 war—shows that ‘frameworks’ without enforcement or economic justice are performative, serving to stabilize the status quo for elites while leaving marginalized communities (Palestinian refugees, Lebanese women, Druze minorities) to bear the costs. Indigenous knowledge systems (e.g., *sumud*, *palaver*) and artistic traditions (e.g., Gibran, Khalife) offer alternative models of coexistence, but these are ignored in favor of securitized ‘solutions.’ The path forward requires decolonizing peace processes by centering local agency, addressing climate-induced resource conflicts, and dismantling the arms trade that fuels perpetual low-intensity war. Without these shifts, any ceasefire will be a temporary lull before the next escalation—one that could be even more catastrophic given the region’s economic collapse and climate vulnerabilities.